Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 11.346311 13.918185 16.791228 20.217326 24.169551 28.563444 33.794662
2026-01-04 7.740483 11.026419 15.116158 20.486443 27.251399 35.386699 45.796337
2026-01-11 5.801229 9.333162 14.120517 20.879121 29.949555 41.466434 56.931035
2026-01-18 4.599714 8.235929 13.538296 21.484491 32.700743 47.554197 68.239361
2026-01-25 3.499780 6.983629 12.443989 21.106492 33.919114 51.544693 76.896392
2026-02-01 2.817429 6.211191 11.886275 21.346299 35.903592 56.570985 87.091004
2026-02-08 2.183983 5.352423 11.018694 20.946202 36.828429 60.072665 95.266526
2026-02-15 1.665623 4.561607 10.108578 20.318861 37.280051 62.831084 102.434381
2026-02-22 1.411576 4.238485 9.962035 20.914433 39.643694 68.483184 113.974623
2026-03-01 1.110024 3.717541 9.347082 20.601909 40.475946 71.818386 122.202867
2026-03-08 0.900981 3.349546 8.961822 20.637021 41.850682 76.014924 131.845927
2026-03-15 0.665093 2.820851 8.137874 19.735514 41.523607 77.471381 137.328524
2026-03-22 0.556163 2.628636 8.048017 20.311830 43.944965 83.651743 150.696967
2026-03-29 0.446223 2.386895 7.801900 20.553879 45.802448 89.042249 163.123532
2026-04-05 0.363881 2.198039 7.642032 20.945597 47.946090 94.991273 176.649428
2026-04-12 0.304257 2.063020 7.589352 21.552335 50.520652 101.766048 191.731597
2026-04-19 0.225780 1.796299 7.121323 21.173388 51.158976 105.233643 201.533009
2026-04-26 0.179789 1.644491 6.938298 21.413790 53.010763 110.869831 215.078281
2026-05-03 0.130544 1.429457 6.510278 21.012699 53.531519 114.158352 224.797973
2026-05-10 0.090021 1.215507 6.020537 20.383789 53.518570 116.463086 232.907240
2026-05-17 0.074283 1.152403 6.017390 20.980851 56.102463 123.579801 249.431577
2026-05-24 0.052413 1.007373 5.682981 20.667546 56.713612 127.078325 259.821845
2026-05-31 0.038688 0.908937 5.489757 20.702746 58.073467 132.011792 272.839767